How socio-political change is associated with the number of individually reported negative life events: a population-based study using the German reunification 1989/1990 as an example.

BACKGROUND: Socio-political change often leads to disruptions in employment and social networks, which can exacerbate health issues and increase mortality rates. These consequences are likely observed as an increase in negative life events (NLEs), serving as indicators of the broader social and health impacts. Using the German reunification in 1989/1990 as an example, this study investigates changes in reported numbers of NLEs and differences regarding sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We used data from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-START-0, SHIP-Life-Events and Gene-Environment Interaction in Depression; N=1932). Numbers of NLEs in different categories (work/financial, social/interpersonal, illness (own) and illness/death (others)) were measured retrospectively in 5-year intervals (1980-2004) using a semistructured interview. Pre-reunification and post-reunification changes were modelled using piecewise mixed-effects Poisson regressions with the 1990-1994 interval (reunification) as change point. Interactions with age, sex and education were examined. RESULTS: The number of most NLE categories, except social/interpersonal NLEs, increased at reunification. Whereas work/financial NLEs slightly decreased post-reunification, illness-related NLEs continued to increase. Higher numbers of social/interpersonal NLEs were found with younger age. More illness-related NLEs were reported with older age, lower education (illness (own)) and by women (illness/death (others)). However, the majority reported no NLEs at reunification (68.2%-80.7%, varying by category). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that although some individuals experience a marked increase in NLEs due to socio-political changes, many remain unaffected, emphasising the need for a differentiated understanding of these effects. This increase in NLEs may partly account for ongoing health and well-being disparities among countries with differing transformation histories.

Bringing Communities Together: Mapping the Investigation-Study-Assay-Model (ISA) to Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR).

Adhering to FAIR principles (findability, accessibility, interoperability, reusability) ensures sustainability and reliable exchange of data and metadata. Research communities need common infrastructures and information models to collect, store, manage and work with data and metadata. The German initiative NFDI4Health created a metadata schema and an infrastructure integrating existing platforms based on different information models and standards. To ensure system compatibility and enhance data integration possibilities, we mapped the Investigation-Study-Assay (ISA) model to Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR). We present the mapping in FHIR logical models, a resulting FHIR resources' network and challenges that we encountered. Challenges mainly related to ISA's genericness, and to different structures and datatypes used in ISA and FHIR. Mapping ISA to FHIR is feasible but requires further analyses of example data and adaptations to better specify target FHIR elements, and enable possible automatized conversions from ISA to FHIR.

Are there associations between hip geometry and bone quality? An analysis on 3074 adults from a general population.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with reduced bone mineral density and altered hip geometry are susceptible for hip pathologies. Knowledge on associations between bone properties and hip geometric parameters might facilitate identification of patients at risk for hip pathologies. The aim of the present study was to identify associations of bone properties assessed by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel and hip geometric parameters like center-edge angle (CE), neck-shaft angle (NSA) and alpha angle. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Hip geometric parameters (CE, NSA and alpha angle) of 3074 participants from the population-based Study of Health in Pomerania were assessed on magnetic resonance imaging. QUS was performed on both calcanei providing broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and stiffness-index. Based on the stiffness-index the individual osteoporotic fracture risk (low, moderate or high) was determined. Associations between QUS-based and hip geometric parameters were calculated in linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, body height and weight. Interactions of QUS markers with age and sex on hip geometric parameters were tested. RESULTS: Significant inverse associations between BUA (ß = - 0.068), SOS (ß = - 0.024) as well as stiffness-index (ß = - 0.056) and CE were present, while fracture risk was positively associated with CE (ß for high = 1.28 and moderate = 2.54 vs. low fracture risk). Interactions between BUA and sex as well as between SOS and age were detected in the models for CE. Furthermore, there was an inverse relation between fracture risk and NSA that was restricted to the moderate risk (ß for moderate vs. low fracture risk = - 0.60). There were no significant associations between QUS parameters and alpha angle. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, several associations between QUS-based bone properties or fracture risk and hip geometry are present. Less dysplastic hips had a lower stiffness-index and a higher fracture risk, whereas more valgus hips had a lower fracture risk.

Regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease and its classic risk factors: An analysis of 49 cohorts from 11 European countries.

AIMS: The regional and temporal differences in the associations between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its classic risk factors are unknown. The current study examined these associations in different European regions over a 30-year period. METHODS: The study sample comprised 553818 individuals from 49 cohorts in 11 European countries (baseline: 1982-2012) who were followed up for a maximum of 10 years. Risk factors (sex, smoking, diabetes, non-HDL [high-density lipoprotein] cholesterol, systolic blood pressure [BP], and body mass index [BMI]) and CVD events (coronary heart disease or stroke) were harmonized across cohorts. Risk factor-outcome associations were analysed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, and differences in associations were assessed using meta-regression. RESULTS: The differences in the risk factor-CVD associations between central Europe, northern Europe, southern Europe, and the United Kingdom were generally small. Men had a slightly higher hazard ratio (HR) in southern Europe (p = 0.043 for overall difference) and those with diabetes had a slightly lower HR in central Europe (p = 0.022 for overall difference) compared with the other regions. Of the six CVD risk factors, minor HR decreases per decade were observed for non-HDL cholesterol (7% per mmol/L; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3-10%) and systolic BP (4% per 20 mmHg; 95% CI, 1-8%), while a minor HR increase per decade was observed for BMI (7% per 10 kg/m2; 95% CI, 1-13%). CONCLUSION: The results demonstrate that all classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. Preventive strategies should focus on risk factors with the greatest population attributable risk.

All classic CVD risk factors are still relevant in Europe, irrespective of regional area. The differences in the associations of CVD risk factors with overt CVD between regions of Europe are generally small. Minor temporal hazard decreases were observed for non-HDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure, while a minor hazard increase was observed for body mass index.

Chronic pain is associated with less grey matter volume in the anterior cingulum, anterior and posterior insula and hippocampus across three different chronic pain conditions.

BACKGROUND: Chronic pain of different aetiologies and localization has been associated with less grey matter volume (GMV) in several cortical and subcortical brain areas. Recent meta-analyses reported low reproducibility of GMV alterations between studies and pain syndromes. METHODS: To investigate GMV in common chronic pain conditions defined by body location (chronic back pain, n = 174; migraine, n = 92; craniomandibular disorder, n = 39) compared to controls (n = 296), we conducted voxel-based morphometry and determined GMV from high-resolution cranial MRIs obtained in an epidemiologic survey. Mediation analyses were performed between the presence of chronic pain and GMV testing the mediators stress and mild depression. The predictability of chronic pain was investigated with binomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Whole-brain analyses yielded reduced GMV within the left anterior insula and the anterior cingulate cortex, for a ROI approach additionally the left posterior insula and left hippocampus showing less GMV across all patients with chronic pain. The relationship of pain with GMV in the left hippocampus was mediated by self-reported stressors in the last 12 months. Binomial logistic regression revealed a predictive effect for GMV in the left hippocampus and left anterior insula/temporal pole for the presence of chronic pain. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic pain across three different pain conditions was characterized by less GMV in brain regions consistently described for different chronic pain conditions before. Less GMV in the left hippocampus mediated by experienced stress during the last year might be related to altered pain learning mechanisms in chronic pain patients. SIGNIFICANCE: Grey matter reorganization could serve as a diagnostic biomarker for chronic pain. In a large cohort, we here replicated findings of less grey matter volume across three pain conditions in the left anterior and posterior insula, anterior cingulate and left hippocampus. Less hippocampal grey matter was mediated by experienced stress.

Reference values and influencing factors of the glenohumeral subluxation index: a study on 3004 participants.

BACKGROUND: The primary objective of this study was to examine the glenohumeral subluxation index (GHSI) in a large general population cohort and to define reference values. Glenohumeral subluxation is important in the development and prediction of pathological states of the shoulder joint and in total shoulder arthroplasty. Therefore, another objective was to examine the influence of age, sex, body mass index, and body height and weight on GHSI. METHODS: GHSI according to Walch was measured on bilateral magnetic resonance imaging of 3004 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP, aged 21-90 years). SHIP drew a sample of the adult general population of Pomerania (Northeastern Germany). Reference values for GHSI were assessed by quantile regression models. Associations of sex, age, and anthropometric markers with the GHSI were calculated by linear regression models. RESULTS: A reference range between 42% and 55% for men with a mean of 49% ± 4% was defined, while the upper reference limit for women was 1% higher (mean, 50% ± 4%). Age was inversely associated with the GHSI in males (P < 0.001), while no significant association in females was observed (P = .625). Body weight and body mass index were positively associated (P < .001) without effect modification by sex. Heavy mechanical oscillations on the upper extremity showed no significant association with GHSI (P = .268). CONCLUSION: The reference values for GHSI were expanded to a range of 42%-57% on magnetic resonance imaging. Several associations between GHSI and anthropometric properties are present. According to these associations, adjusted formulas are provided to enable individual, patient-specific diagnostics and therapy. Nevertheless, the clinical picture cannot be neglected.

Conducting an Epidemiologic Study and Making It FAIR: Reusable Tools and Procedures from a Population-Based Cohort Study.

Conducting large-scale epidemiologic studies requires powerful software for electronic data capture, data management, data quality assessments, and participant management. There is also an increasing need to make studies and the data collected findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). However, reusable software tools from major studies, underlying such needs, are not necessarily known to other researchers. Therefore, this work gives an overview on the main tools used to conduct the internationally highly networked population-based project Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP), as well as approaches taken to improve its FAIRness. Deep phenotyping, formalizing processes from data capture to data transfer, with a strong emphasis on cooperation and data exchange have laid the foundation for a broad scientific impact with more than 1500 published papers to date.

Identifying Relevant FHIR Elements for Data Quality Assessment in the German Core Data Set.

The German Medical Informatics Initiative makes clinical routine data available for biomedical research. In total, 37 university hospitals have set up so-called data integration centers to facilitate this data reuse. A standardized set of HL7 FHIR profiles ("MII Core Data Set") defines the common data model across all centers. Regular Projectathons ensure continuous evaluation of the implemented data sharing processes on artificial and real-world clinical use cases. In this context, FHIR continues to rise in popularity for exchanging patient care data. As reusing data from patient care in clinical research requires high trust in the data, data quality assessments are a key point of concern in the data sharing process. To support the setup of data quality assessments within data integration centers, we suggest a process for finding elements of interest from FHIR profiles. We focus on the specific data quality measures defined by Kahn et al.

Monitoring and management of chronic kidney disease in ambulatory care - analysis of clinical and claims data from a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although chronic kidney disease (CKD) is highly prevalent in the general population, little research has been conducted on CKD management in ambulatory care. Objective was to assess management and quality of care by evaluating CKD coding in ambulatory care, patient diagnosis awareness, frequency of monitoring and whether appropriate patients are referred to nephrology. METHODS: Clinical data from the population-based cohort Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-START) were matched with claims data of the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians. Quality of care was evaluated according international and German recommendations. RESULTS: Data from 1778 participants (56% female, mean age 59 years) were analysed. 10% had eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (mean age 74 years), 15% had albuminuria. 21% had CKD as defined by KDIGO. 20% of these were coded and 7% self-reported having CKD. Coding increased with GFR stage (G3a 20%, G3b 61%, G4 75%, G5 100%). Serum creatinine and urinary dip stick testing were billed in the majority of all participants regardless of renal function. Testing frequency partially surpassed recommendations. Nephrology consultation was billed in few cases with stage G3b-G4. CONCLUSION: CKD coding increased with stage and was performed reliably in stages ≥ G4, while CKD awareness was low. Adherence to monitoring and referral criteria varied, depending on the applicability of monitoring criteria. For assessing quality of care, consent on monitoring, patient education, referral criteria and coordination of care needs to be established, accounting for patient related factors, including age and comorbidity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was prospectively registered as DRKS00009812 in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS).

Implementing SNOMED CT in Open Software Solutions to Enhance the Findability of COVID-19 Questionnaires.

SNOMED CT fosters interoperability in healthcare and research. This use case implemented SNOMED CT for browsing COVID-19 questionnaires in the open-software solutions OPAL/MICA. We implemented a test server requiring files in a given YAML format for implementation of taxonomies with only two levels of hierarchy. Within this format, neither the implementation of SNOMED CT hierarchies and post-coordination nor the use of release files were possible. To solve this, Python scripts were written to integrate the required SNOMED CT concepts (Fully Specified Name, FSN and SNOMED CT Identifier, SCTID) into the YAML format (YAML Mode). Mappings of SNOMED CT to data items of the questionnaires had to be provided as Excel files for implementation into Opal/MICA and further Python scripts were established within the Excel Mode. Finally, a total of eight questionnaires containing 1.178 data items were successfully mapped to SNOMED CT and implemented in OPAL/MICA. This use case showed that implementing SNOMED CT for browsing COVID-19 questionnaires is feasible despite software solutions not supporting SNOMED CT. However, limitations of not being able to implement SNOMED CT release files and its provided hierarchy and post-coordination still have to be overcome.

Validation of Cardiovascular Risk Prediction by the Arriba Instrument.

BACKGROUND: It is recommended in cardiovascular prevention guidelines that treatment should be based on overall cardiovascular risk. The arriba instrument has been widely used for this purpose in Germany. The aim of this study is to validate risk prediction by arriba with the aid of morbidity and mortality data from the population- based Study of Health in Pomerania. METHODS: In a longitudinal analysis, the arriba instrument was used to calculate the 10-year overall cardiovascular risk at baseline for subjects who had not sustained any prior cardiovascular event. Cardiovascular event rates were determined from follow-up data, and discrimination and calibration measures for the risk determination algorithm were calculated. RESULTS: Data from 1973 subjects (mean age 51 ± 13 years, 48% men) were included in the analysis. After a median follow-up of 10.9 years, cardiovascular events had occurred in 196 subjects, or 9.8%. The ratio of predicted to observed event rate was 0.8 (95% confidence interval: [0.5; 1.1]), 1.3 [1.0; 1.8], and 1.1 [0.8; 1.4] for subjects at low, intermediate, and high cardiovascular risk, respectively. Arriba underestimated cardiovascular event rates in women and overestimated them in persons aged 30-44 and 45-59. The area under curve was 0.84 [95% CI 0.81; 0.86]. CONCLUSION: The discrimination scores of the arriba instrument resemble those of SCORE-Germany and PROCAM, but a better adjustment to the target population would be desirable. The results support the recommendation of the German Guideline for Cardiovascular Risk Counseling in General Practice for the use of the arriba instrument. An unresolved problem is the failure to consider intervention effects, resulting in an overall mild overestimation of risk.

Quality of life and sleep in individuals with irritable bowel syndrome according to different diagnostic criteria and inflammatory bowel diseases: A comparison using data from a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: A proportion of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) affected patients does not fulfil Rome criteria despite considerable impairment similarly to that in patients with organic gastrointestinal diseases.This investigation aims to examine differences regarding Mental (MQoL), Physical Quality of Life (PQoL), and sleep between IBS according to Rome III (IBS Rome), clinically defined IBS, inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), and non-IBS/non-IBD individuals. METHODS: Data from SHIP-Trend (Study of Health in Pomerania, 2008-2012), a population-based cohort study in Germany, were used. RESULTS: Response was 50.1% (N = 4420). Prevalence was 3.5% for IBS Rome (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0 - 4.1%, n = 148), 0.6% for clinically defined IBS (CI: 0.4 - 0.9%, n = 27), and 0.8% for IBD (CI: 0.6 - 1.1%, n = 34). Individuals with IBS Rome (4.54 (CI: -5.92; -3.17)) and clinically defined IBS (4.69 (CI: -7.82; -1.56)) had lower scores for MQoL compared to the non-IBS/non-IBD group. PQoL scores were lowered in IBS Rome (6.39 (CI: -7.89; -4.88)) and IBD (5.37 (CI: -8.51; -2.22)), but not in clinically defined IBS compared to the non-IBS/non-IBD group. IBS Rome was the only gastroenterological condition with higher odds of sleeping problems (odds ratio (OR) "falling asleep": 1.74; CI: 1.29; 2.36; OR "remaining asleep": 1.73; CI: 1.26; 2.38). CONCLUSIONS: IBS Rome is associated with reduced MQoL, PQoL, and sleep problems. Clinically defined IBS is associated only with reduced MQoL. Heterogeneity within IBS affected patients should be considered in clinical routine and screening for daily life impairment should be performed.

Effects of whole-body MRI on outpatient health service costs: a general-population prospective cohort study in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany.

OBJECTIVE: Whole-body MRI (wb-MRI) is increasingly used in research and screening but little is known about the effects of incidental findings (IFs) on health service utilisation and costs. Such effects are particularly critical in an observational study. Our principal research question was therefore how participation in a wb-MRI examination with its resemblance to a population-based health screening is associated with outpatient service costs. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: General population Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. PARTICIPANTS: Analyses included 5019 participants of the Study of Health in Pomerania with statutory health insurance data. 2969 took part in a wb-MRI examination in addition to a clinical examination programme that was administered to all participants. MRI non-participants served as a quasi-experimental control group with propensity score weighting to account for baseline differences. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Outpatient costs (total healthcare usage, primary care, specialist care, laboratory tests, imaging) during 24 months after the examination were retrieved from claims data. Two-part models were used to compute treatment effects. RESULTS: In total, 1366 potentially relevant IFs were disclosed to 948 MRI participants (32% of all participants); most concerned masses and lesions (769 participants, 81%). Costs for outpatient care during the 2-year observation period amounted to an average of €2547 (95% CI 2424 to 2671) for MRI non-participants and to €2839 (95% CI 2741 to 2936) for MRI participants, indicating an increase of €295 (95% CI 134 to 456) per participant which corresponds to 11.6% (95% CI 5.2% to 17.9%). The cost increase was sustained rather than being a short-term spike. Imaging and specialist care related costs were the main contributors to the increase in costs. CONCLUSIONS: Communicated findings from population-based wb-MRI substantially impacted health service utilisation and costs. This introduced bias into the natural course of healthcare utilisation and should be taken care for in any longitudinal analyses.

Intestinal parasitoses and associated factors in a Brazilian city of German's descendants: a population-based study.

Intestinal parasitoses are a recurrent public health problem in developing countries. Their occurrence is usually associated with poor socioeconomic status and environmental risk factors. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of intestinal parasites and associated risk factors in Pomerode, SC. This was a cross-sectional sample with participants from population-based cohort study SHIP-Brazil (n=2,488). Sociodemographic, lifestyle, and environmental variables were selected from the study database. The stool samples were analyzed by Hoffman, Pons, and Janer, and by Faust methods. We estimated the relative frequency of parasites and its association to the study variable was estimated by prevalence ratio (PR) in a Poisson regression model. Among those who provided stool sample (n=797), the prevalence was 10.8% (95% CI 8.6 to 13.4). Endolimax nana, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.5-6.7) was the most frequent parasite, followed by Entamoeba histolytica/dispar, 1.7% (95% CI, 0.8-3.3), Urbanorum spp., 1.6% (95% CI, 1.0-2.7). Men (PR=1.9 95% CI 1.2-2.9), olders (PR=1.7 95% CI 1.0-2.8), non-white (PR=1.9 95% CI 1.2-3.0), living in high-risk dwelling areas (PR=1.8 95% CI 1.4-2.4) were associated with elevated proportions of parasitosis in the adjusted model. The current study found a low frequency of intestinal parasitoses in Pomerode, SC, Brazil. This frequency was higher among males, older, who live alone, non-white, in low SES, and living in high-risk dwelling areas.

Association of Lumbar MRI Findings with Current and Future Back Pain in a Population-based Cohort Study.

STUDY DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. OBJECTIVE: We examined associations between common lumbar degenerative changes observed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and present or future low back pain (LBP). SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: The association between lumbar MRI degenerative findings and LBP is unclear. Longitudinal studies are sparse. METHODS: Participants (n = 3369) from a population-based cohort study were imaged at study entry, with LBP status measured at baseline and 6-year follow-up. MRI scans were reported on for the presence of a range of MRI findings. LBP status was measured on a 0 to 10 scale. Regression models were used to estimate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between individual and multiple MRI findings and LBP severity. Separate longitudinal analyses were conducted for participants with and without baseline pain. RESULTS: MRI findings were present in persons with and without back pain at baseline. Higher proportions were found in older age groups. 76.4% of participants had a least one MRI finding and 8.3% had five or more different MRI findings. Cross-sectionally, most MRI findings were slightly more common in those with LBP and pain severity was slightly higher in those with MRI findings (ranging from 0.06 for high intensity zone to 0.83 for spondylolisthesis). In the longitudinal analyses, we found most MRI findings were not associated with future LBP-severity regardless of the presence or absence of baseline pain. Compared to zero MRI findings, having multiple MRI findings (five or more) was associated with mildly greater pain-severity at baseline (0.84; 0.50-1.17) and greater increase in pain-severity over 6 years in those pain free at baseline (1.21; 0.04-2.37), but not in those with baseline pain (-0.30; -0.99 to 0.38). CONCLUSION: Our study shows that the MRI degenerative findings we examined, individually or in combination, do not have clinically important associations with LBP, with almost all effects less than one unit on a 0 to 10 pain scale.Level of Evidence: 3.

Improving the FAIRness of Health Studies in Germany: The German Central Health Study Hub COVID-19.

The German Central Health Study Hub COVID-19 is an online service that offers bundled access to COVID-19 related studies conducted in Germany. It combines metadata and other information of epidemiologic, public health and clinical studies into a single data repository for FAIR data access. In addition to study characteristics the system also allows easy access to study documents, as well as instruments for data collection. Study metadata and survey instruments are decomposed into individual data items and semantically enriched to ease the findability. Data from existing clinical trial registries (DRKS, clinicaltrails.gov and WHO ICTRP) are merged with epidemiological and public health studies manually collected and entered. More than 850 studies are listed as of September 2021.

Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) in a FAIR Metadata Registry for COVID-19 Research.

Adopting international standards within health research communities can elevate data FAIRness and widen analysis possibilities. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the mapping feasibility against HL7® Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources® (FHIR)® of a generic metadata schema (MDS) created for a central search hub gathering COVID-19 health research (studies, questionnaires, documents = MDS resource types). Mapping results were rated by calculating the percentage of FHIR coverage. Among 86 items to map, total mapping coverage was 94%: 50 (58%) of the items were available as standard resources in FHIR and 31 (36%) could be mapped using extensions. Five items (6%) could not be mapped to FHIR. Analyzing each MDS resource type, there was a total mapping coverage of 93% for studies and 95% for questionnaires and documents, with 61% of the MDS items available as standard resources in FHIR for studies, 57% for questionnaires and 52% for documents. Extensions in studies, questionnaires and documents were used in 32%, 38% and 43% of items, respectively. This work shows that FHIR can be used as a standardized format in registries for clinical, epidemiological and public health research. However, further adjustments to the initial MDS are recommended - and two additional items even needed when implementing FHIR. Developing a MDS based on the FHIR standard could be a future approach to reduce data ambiguity and foster interoperability.

Predicting Physician Consultations for Low Back Pain Using Claims Data and Population-Based Cohort Data-An Interpretable Machine Learning Approach.

(1) Background: Predicting chronic low back pain (LBP) is of clinical and economic interest as LBP leads to disabilities and health service utilization. This study aims to build a competitive and interpretable prediction model; (2) Methods: We used clinical and claims data of 3837 participants of a population-based cohort study to predict future LBP consultations (ICD-10: M40.XX-M54.XX). Best subset selection (BSS) was applied in repeated random samples of training data (75% of data); scoring rules were used to identify the best subset of predictors. The rediction accuracy of BSS was compared to randomforest and support vector machines (SVM) in the validation data (25% of data); (3) Results: The best subset comprised 16 out of 32 predictors. Previous occurrence of LBP increased the odds for future LBP consultations (odds ratio (OR) 6.91 [5.05; 9.45]), while concomitant diseases reduced the odds (1 vs. 0, OR: 0.74 [0.57; 0.98], >1 vs. 0: 0.37 [0.21; 0.67]). The area-under-curve (AUC) of BSS was acceptable (0.78 [0.74; 0.82]) and comparable with SVM (0.78 [0.74; 0.82]) and randomforest (0.79 [0.75; 0.83]); (4) Conclusions: Regarding prediction accuracy, BSS has been considered competitive with established machine-learning approaches. Nonetheless, considerable misclassification is inherent and further refinements are required to improve predictions.